Democrats remain clear favourites to gain control of Congress at midterms

With just over two weeks until the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats have a three in four chance to gain control of the Senate, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in Nate Silver’s forecast model.

Democrats lead Republicans by 9.6 points on the generic ballot, and Donald Trump’s net approval is -22.3.

If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, perhaps with huge losses.

With the oil price surging recently, petrol prices are likely to increase again before the midterms.

Trump’s ratings In Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -22.3.

Currently, 59.8% disapprove of his performance and 37.6% approve.

There haven’t been many polls taken since Trump’s October 9 announcement of a diesel import deal with Russia .

Trump’s net approval was -22.5 in my October 7 article , but fell to a record low of -23.9 on October 9 before a slight recovery.

His net approval had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling back.

Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Joe Biden the closest at -11.7.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -11.6 on immigration, -30.6 on trade, -32.9 on the economy and -48.9 on inflation.

Since my October 7 article, Trump’s net approval on trade has dropped two points, but has improved one point on immigration.

Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war .

Currently, 56.2% are opposed to the Iran war while 35.2% support it, for a net support of -21.0, up from a record low of -27.9 in my October 7 article.