Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s First Stand Also Be Her Last?

Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s August was bad . Her September could be even worse.

On Friday, Premier David Eby called a byelection for Abbotsford-Mission, where the Conservative Party of BC leader hopes to win a seat in the legislature.

It’s not usually difficult for a newly chosen leader of a major political party to win a seat in the legislature or Parliament. After a party member in a relatively friendly electoral district is persuaded to step aside, victory is usually assured. After all, the leader is running in a safe riding, on a wave of popularity, and has their party’s war chest at their disposal.

Often the biggest hurdle is getting the government of the day to actually trigger the byelection in a timely manner.

The fact that Eby called a byelection just a week after the resignation of MLA Reann Gasper might be the biggest sign of the trouble Kerry-Lynne Findlay is in. Because as she seeks a seat this September, Findlay will face a tangle of difficulties.

To start, Findlay is currently fighting off a wave of defections among MLAs.

On Monday, Á'a:líya Warbus became the seventh MLA to leave the Conservative caucus this month, citing a breakdown of communication and a lack of leadership from Findlay.

Multiple staffers have also left , and the party apparatus appears to be at war with itself. Opponents on the centre-right are positing the formation of a new party that focuses its energy on fiscal, rather than social, issues.

In this context, Abbotsford-Mission has the potential to be Findlay’s Waterloo .

On the surface, Abbotsford seems as safe as one might get for a conservative politician. The Fraser Valley is famously right of centre, with a large Christian community and a highly active political scene. Two years ago, Gasper, a political neophyte, won the riding relatively comfortably, with 55 per cent of the vote.

Today, Abbotsford-Mission is no longer a safe right-of-centre seat. The area is a mix of traditionally conservative rural properties, the working-class core of Mission, and suburban Abbotsford neighbourhoods full of families who moved into the valley in search of lower home prices.

In the 2015 federal election, the Liberals’ Jati Sidhu won a seat in Parliament in a riding that bridged Mission and Abbotsford.

In 2020, Mission Mayor Pam Alexis ran provincially for the NDP and knocked off longtime BC Liberal Simon Gibson. While Sidhu was later defeated and Alexis’s victory was thanks in part to unique pandemic conditions and John Horgan’s popularity, both results also reflected the broader demographic reshaping of the valley.

The region has swung back to the right since 2020, with Gasper beating Alexis in 2022. But the 2022 contest was, crucially, just a two-person race; the Greens didn’t run a candidate, and the Conservative Party of BC was the lone right-of-centre party.