DemosAU MRP poll has Labor winning clear majority of House seats on just 27% of primary vote

A federal DemosAU MRP poll gave Labor a clear majority of House of Representatives seats on just 27% of the primary vote, with One Nation slumping from 60 seats in the May to July MRP poll to 24 in this one.

With the Victorian election on November 28, a Resolve poll has the Greens gaining three points to 15% with the Coalition, Labor and One Nation unchanged.

Federal DemosAU MRP poll Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) polls use modelling and large sample sizes to estimate the outcome of each House of Representatives seat if an election were held now.

Long fieldwork periods mean they can’t be used to infer recent poll trends.

A DemosAU MRP poll for Capital Brief, conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9,740, had a central projection with Labor winning 84 of the 150 House seats (up 16 since the May to July DemosAU MRP poll ).

This gives Labor well over the 76 needed for a majority.

The Coalition was winning 34 seats (up 21), One Nation 24 (down 36), the Greens zero (down three) and all Others eight (up two).

Labor’s seat range was 72–85, suggesting they were lucky to be winning 84 seats in the central projection.

The Coalition’s seat range was 25–44, One Nation’s 22–35, the Greens’ 0–3 and Others’ 5–10.

National primary votes in this MRP poll were 27% Labor (up one since the last MRP poll), 26% One Nation (down four), 22% Coalition (up one), 13% Greens (steady) and 12% Others (up two).

One Nation’s primary vote in rural and regional seats was down seven points to 34%.

In One Nation vs Coalition contests, Labor voters’ preferences strongly favoured the Coalition.

In Labor vs One Nation contests, Coalition voters’ preferences flowed to One Nation at a weaker rate than One Nation flows to the Coalition.

Morgan poll Morgan is now releasing federal polls once a fortnight instead of every week.