Restore Britain is being taken seriously by pollsters – and it’s bad news for Farage

It was in autumn 2022 when political pollsters began officially including Reform UK in their surveys, alongside the main political parties. The significant move meant Reform were added to the list of parties put in front of voters when asked who they support – throwing them into the same bracket as Labour, the Tories, Lib Dems and Greens.

At that point, Nigel Farage’s party were polling at around 5 to 7 per cent. What happened next is well-known. Reform UK had a surge in popularity and went on to secure 15 per cent in the general election. They then held a lead in the polls for the next 18 months, making Mr Farage a serious contender for Number 10.

Now, pollsters have made the same move with Rupert Lowe ’s rightwing Restore Britain. It is a highly significant moment – and also very bad news for Mr Farage.

In its first poll including Mr Lowe’s party, More in Common survey found 4 per cent of people are already saying they would support Restore.

Not surprisingly some of that support has come from Reform who are down two points to 23 per cent now four points behind Labour unchanged on 27 per cent.

Reform’s vote share – probably not coincidently – is at its lowest point for 18 months.

The other two points for Restore appear to have come from the “other” or “don’t know” category, with the Tories also unchanged on 22 per cent.

While 4 per cent is about half what Mr Lowe claims is the real support for his party, it is nevertheless a sizeable share for a new party. But it also confirms what More in Common ’s director Luke Tryl describes as “the fragmentation of the right” in British politics.

Fans of Monty Python’s Life of Brian may well be reminded of the scene involving the Judean People’s Front describing the People’s Front of Judea as “splitters!” And they would not be far wrong.

After all, Restore is made up of discontents from Reform. Mr Lowe himself was thrown out after a row with former Reform chairman Zia Yusuf went badly wrong and the police were even called. Others, like Reform’s former London mayor candidate Howard Cox, have also joined Restore.

It may be slightly alarming that 4 per cent of people support a party which wants to champion “white Britons” who the party defines as having both parents born in Britain which, of course, would exclude King Charles – a point Mr Lowe refused to be drawn on during a fractious BBC interview earlier this month.

But there is one supporter of Restore who is more important than anyone else – Elon Musk, the owner of X and world’s richest man.

Mr Musk rejected Mr Farage’s attempts to woo him in favour of Mr Lowe, partly because of Mr Farage’s refusal to take a more sympathetic stance on Tommy Robinson.

But the backing of the tech billionaire has meant there is a platform whose algorithms are helping out Restore.