Cleverly finally turns battle for London into serious contest again - and why it’s good news for Badenoch

Sir James Cleverly ’s plan to run for to be the next mayor of London in 2028 is hugely significant not least because it means that the fight for Britain’s capital city and economic engine has become a serious contest for the first time for 14 years.

As a former foreign secretary, home secretary, education secretary and Tory chairman, Sir James brings a vast amount of serious political experience and it means that for the first time in a decade Sir Sadiq Khan has a heavyweight opponent lined up against him.

It may not, though, be the most surprising news for people who know Sir James well, or the political bubble.

Since around 2022 Sir James’s name has been mooted as the candidate for London mayor.

With his wife recovering from illness he decided to not go for it in 2024 when he was also home secretary and desperately trying to fix Britain’s broken immigration system.

But for the past 12 months there has been increasing speculation that he would throw his hat in the ring to win London back for the Tories for the first time since Boris Johnson’s mayoralty ended in 2016.

Now, following his announcement on Saturday night, we can view the election in London in May 2028 as a serious contest and one that could be an indicator of what happens in the next general election, assuming Andy Burnham holds out until late 2028 or 2029.

The 2028 date of the London mayoral election is important. London is seen as a largely Labour city and more likely to vote left than right.

But in 2008 Boris Johnson showed that a liberal Tory - as he was then with a popular touch - could win London.

That fight though will come at an important time. We will know by then if Sir Sadiq wants a fourth term but more importantly we will know if Mr Burnham’s attempt to win back support for Labour with a smile and a bit more devolution has worked with the electorate.

Given that it is 18 months away we will also have a strong indicator whether Kemi Badenoch has turned the toxic Tory brand into a fighting machine for the general election. London will be an important test.

Finally, but most importantly, we will know if Nigel Farage and Reform UK are still a serious threat or whether they have run out of steam.

In these circumstances the Conservatives needed a big candidate, and not to mess around as they did when prevously selecting weak opponents against Sir Sadiq.

While Sir James is not a Boris figure, he does have charisma and the gift of the gab. He is also a serious figure with experience and has been a former deputy mayor of London.