Ukraine may lose up to 6.8% of GDP in 2027 amid continued hostilities

MOSCOW, September 21. /TASS/. Ukraine may face a loss of up to 6.8% of GDP, or more than $15 billion and $5.15 billion in budget revenues out of a draft budget of $72 billion, amid continued hostilities, calculations by TASS based on the documents accompanying the 2027 draft budget show.

Ukrainian Finance Ministry officials warn of an exacerbating energy crisis, export issues and labor shortages due to people fleeing the country and ongoing mobilization. Even the most optimistic forecast projects an electricity deficit of 30%, while the worst-case scenario anticipates 50%. The decline in exports in the most optimistic scenario would amount to 20%, or 40% in the pessimistic one.

A decline in the number of employed people is projected to be between 350,000 and 450,000. This, the head of Vladimir Zelensky’s office, Kirill Budanov (listed by Russia as a terrorist and extremist), said, would amount to around 30,000 people per month, or about the level needed by Ukraine for mobilization.