Possible power shortfalls after 2030 despite current surplus, as Eskom is scheduled to shut down coal plants

Eskom may be producing more electricity than South Africa needs, but the power utility has warned that the country could face generation shortfalls after 2030.

With several of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations scheduled for decommissioning between 2027 and 2030, the utility said their closure would have to be carefully considered, raising the possibility that the lifespan of some plants could be extended.

Stations including Camden, Hendrina, Grootvlei and Arnot have already had their operating lives extended, with Eskom spending billions of rand to keep them operational and connected to the national grid.

Eskom is currently operating with a surplus as electricity demand has declined significantly over the years due to rooftop solar panels that have been installed by consumers.

“While the current surplus of power is welcomed as it means no load-shedding, system adequacy assessments indicate a deficiency for the period post-2030,” Eskom told the Sunday Times.

The power utility indicated that the scheduled shutdown of coal-fired power stations would therefore have to be “carefully considered”.

“Consequently, shutting down power stations must be carefully evaluated to ensure the continued security and reliability of electricity supply,” Eskom said.

Energy expert Clyde Mallinson said Eskom appeared to be showing less urgency around the decommissioning of coal-fired stations , which remain the backbone of its generation fleet.

“Eskom is reluctant to shut them [coal-powered stations scheduled to be decommissioned] down. It seems Eskom does not have termination plans currently,” Mallinson said.

He said South Africa should aggressively invest in wind and solar generation to ensure there is sufficient replacement capacity when Eskom’s ageing coal-fired plants are eventually decommissioned.

“For whatever reason, there’s no appetite and Eskom is stalling on decommissioning these plants … I am not fingering anyone in particular, but if someone has borrowed a lot of money to buy a coal mine, they would want to prolong the selling of coal,” Mallinson said.

He said it was clear that there were people “with a vested interest” in ensuring Eskom continued buying coal for as long as possible.

For whatever reason, there’s no appetite and Eskom is stalling on decommissioning these plants … I am not fingering anyone in particular, but if someone has borrowed a lot of money to buy a coal mine, they would want to prolong the selling of coal.

Mallinson also pointed out that much of the new renewable generation capacity was being developed by independent power producers rather than Eskom itself.