THE GREAT UNRAVELLING: ANC devours itself from within as voters steadily turn their backs

{JSON.stringify(article.attachments[0], null, 2)} --> Factional warfare, patronage battles and years of electoral decline have left the party on its last legs as it heads for a bruising outcome in South Africa’s municipal elections in November.

They should have seen it coming, the sages will say. The ANC should have seen the signs of rapid decline during the launch of its 2016 local government election manifesto in Port Elizabeth, now Gqeberha.

The party could not fill the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, a feat that was previously easily achieved in the erstwhile stronghold. Party hacks ran around claiming that bus companies (presumably working with the ANC’s opponents) had sabotaged the event by not turning up to pick up supporters in townships around the metro.

Nonetheless, the rally in the barely half-full stadium kicked off with musical performances. The MC and party leaders did their best to rouse the listless crowd to dance to popular tunes. Then the rally began in earnest, with messages of support being delivered by the ANC’s alliance partners and sister parties from across the world.

That is when the crowd began streaming out. By the time then ANC president Jacob Zuma started speaking, the exodus was in full swing. Pleas from the podium to show the leader some respect by staying seated fell on deaf ears, or no ears at all.

Bored by the whole affair, thousands of ANC supporters chose to go and frolic on the beach or window-shop at the local malls until the stipulated departure time. Speaking to journalists, many of those from other parts of the Eastern Cape and inland provinces revealed that they had never been to the coast before and were not going to forgo the opportunity just to listen to speeches.

They had heard all the promises, boasts and excuses before. The trip was great fun and was definitely worth it, but they had no obligation to sit through the dreary proceedings. Again the party hacks went into spin overdrive. It was the heat that drove the crowds away, not disengagement from the ANC’s messages.

Well, the results of the election a few months later showed the extent of the dis­engagement. The ANC lost its previously guaranteed majority in most metros and was muscled out of power in Gauteng’s big cities and Nelson Mandela Bay itself. It then had to force its way back into power by causing instability among the brittle coalitions and, the story goes, offering some absurd incentives.

In the 2019 general election, the 2021 local government elections and the 2024 general elections the trend accelerated.

Over the past weekend, the ANC gathered in Diepsloot, Johannesburg, to launch its manifesto ahead of what is expected to be a humiliating municipal election in November. It was a rather low-energy affair in a community park, far from the mega-stadiums where the party has previously launched its manifestos.

The reasoning behind choosing the small, unglamorous setting was that the Riverside settlement is seen by the ANC as a model for delivering to poor communities.