War and drought threaten world food security — 645m people at risk

An estimated 645 million people worldwide face hunger. When disruptions occur, they reverberate far beyond an immediate conflict zone. The global food market faces the impact of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the war in the Middle East and the incoming El Niño. While everyone is affected, the most vulnerable countries, communities and persons are least able to absorb another shock to food prices and supplies.

Kristian Schmidt is the Ambassador-Designate of the European Union to South Africa.

Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine – targeting its ports, shipping lanes, warehouses, inland logistics and agricultural infrastructure – are no longer just a war on Ukraine.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine supplied 10% of the world’s wheat, 15% of its corn, and 50% of its sunflower oil.

Now, as Ukraine enters its 2026 harvest season, Russia’s attacks have halved grain exports compared with 2025. By October, Ukraine may run out of storage – leaving more than nine million tonnes of grain to rot while farmers lack the resources to plant the next season’s crops.

A lost 2026 harvest will have a ripple effect on global food supply well into 2027 – squandering the potential of some of the world’s most fertile, carbon-rich and deeply layered soil.

By blocking Ukraine’s trade routes, Russia drives up food prices and makes life harder for millions of vulnerable people across the globe – not just in Ukraine, but in places like Gaza, Sudan and many more.

Disruptions to trade, energy and fertiliser markets – compounded by crises such as the war in the Middle East – are pushing fragile economies to the brink.

El Niño will induce a rainfall deficit in the next two to three months before the planting season. Drier-than-average conditions, delayed rains and above-average temperatures are projected to severely suppress crop yields and exhaust pasture and water resources across a broad swath of the region.

In southern Africa, it is estimated that more than 12.8 million people are undergoing acute food insecurity. During the last 2023/2024 El Niño, 30 million people were in a situation of acute food insecurity and six countries declared a state of national emergency. The impact will be felt in South Africa too.

As for the previous El Niño event (2023/2024), when the European Commission committed R522-million for the region, the EU will work with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for a coordinated response across the region, helping to translate climate and risk information into early action, cross-border coordination and political and financial commitments.

For Ukraine, the EU’s Solidarity Lanes have, since the Russian attack in 2022, provided critical alternative routes, using road and rail links to European ports, for Ukrainian grain exports to the world. However, without safe and reliable access to Black Sea ports, free from Russian strikes on Odesa and the Danube ports, global food security remains at risk.

Ukraine has repeatedly offered a just and lasting peace, beginning with a full ceasefire.