Republicans have a huge fundraising advantage. Will it matter?

“Wwhen you talk about how many seats can the Democrats gain, given how unpopular Trump is, the Republican money is seen as a real limiter on Democratic chances,” New York Times reporter Shane Goldmacher told Vox’s America, Actually podcast. | Alex Wong/Getty Images Polls and pundits alike are widely — if sometimes cautiously — predicting a blue wave in the midterm elections on November 3.

But there’s an important caveat to predictions of a Democratic triumph: Republicans have far more cash at their disposal.

President Donald Trump’s super PAC alone had around $400 million on hand earlier this fall, and Elon Musk has personally pumped hundreds of millions into critical races, including $158 million for Texas alone .

Democrats, by contrast, have lagged far behind, especially relative to their performance in past cycles, with the party’s candidates propped up more by small-money donors than deep-pocketed institutional players.

Shane Goldmacher, a national political reporter for the New York Times, has extensively covered the role of money in American electoral politics.

He spoke with America, Actually host Astead Herndon about where that money is coming from, how the GOP is spending it, and the effect that it might have on the coming elections.

They also discuss the races that aren’t getting funded — and what current fundraising patterns might tell us about the candidates who could be in the mix in the next presidential campaign cycle.

Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity.

There’s much more in the full show, so listen to America, Actually wherever you get your podcasts or watch it on Vox’s YouTube channel .

A couple of weeks ago we asked, “What is the GOP strategy to try to win?” And one of the answers we got is they simply have more dollars than Democrats.

Everyone’s talking about this GOP money advantage, but how big is it really, and where is it coming from? It’s bigger than I’ve basically seen in the last 20 years, and it’s almost entirely coming from big donors.

President Trump has a super PAC.

It had about $400 million in it at the beginning of September, and there was no Democratic counterpart.

And then the Republican National Committee, which is functionally controlled by Trump, had another $130 million .