Trump’s Bad Bet on Beef

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Three hundred thousand metric tons of ground beef are on their way to the United States.

There’s no easy way to visualize 300,000 metric tons of anything (for context, that’s about 12 times the weight of the Statue of Liberty).

All of that beef could fill an important gap in the American market—but not everyone’s happy about it.

President Trump announced last Friday that he’ll be temporarily lifting some tariffs on beef and that, as part of an ambiguous deal, the imports will be sold at “25 percent below current market prices.” He was likely hoping for a political win here: Affordability has been a losing issue for Trump and his party ahead of the midterms, and increasing the beef supply in an attempt to lower prices could be one way of giving shoppers a reprieve.

But industry leaders immediately condemned the move, warning that it will do little to address the underlying dynamics that have driven up prices in recent years—and their allies in Congress joined them in the revolt.

Now Trump’s on-again, off-again relationship with ranchers is becoming the whole country’s problem.

There’s no great mystery as to why American beef is so expensive.

The steaks we get from the supermarket represent the end product of a long, multiyear chain involving ranchers, auctioneers, feedlots, meatpackers, and grocery stores.

But beef starts with cattle, and after years of drought, the number of cows now grazing on U.S. soil is the lowest it’s been in 75 years.

The return of a certain flesh-eating parasite hasn’t helped things, either.

This, combined with the fact that Americans are still hungry for beef, has created a basic supply-and-demand problem.

Economists told NPR this week that the president’s move, which was made official on Wednesday, may shave only a small amount off what shoppers are currently paying for ground beef at the grocery store.