Young New Yorkers are facing a tough job market — and a college degree may not make a difference

Workers walking in New York City.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images Unemployment rates for NYC graduates and non-graduates are converging.

22- to 27-year-old New Yorkers face similar unemployment rates whether or not they have a degree.

Fewer Americans see college as vital, partly due to rising costs, per a recent Gallup poll.

It's been a cornerstone of the job market for decades: Higher education is the surest path to steady employment.

But in the Big Apple, there are signs that may no longer be the case.

The unemployment gap between young New Yorkers with college degrees and their peers without degrees has dramatically narrowed; for a few months this year, the latter actually had slightly lower unemployment than the former — a potential sign that entry-level white-collar roles are succumbing to AI creep.

Business Insider analyzed the 12-month moving average of the unemployment rate for 22- to 27-year-olds with and without college degrees in the NYC metro area, using data from the Current Population Survey, accessed via IPUMS .

In June, the unemployment rates for both young New Yorkers without a degree and those with a bachelor's degree or higher were at the same level of 7.7%.

By September, non-degree candidates had returned to a higher rate of 8.1%, while those with a degree stood at 7.3%.

A May report from New York City Comptroller Mark Levine found that this was the "first time on record" young adults with a Bachelor's degree or higher experienced an unemployment rate slightly higher than that of those without a college degree.

This historic swap comes after an increase in the unemployment rate among recent graduates and a decrease in the unemployment rate among same-age adults without a degree, which has "historically been relatively high," according to the report.

The decline in New York's college degree premium comes in a broader low-hire, low-fire economy, where layoffs have remained low, and job openings have been fewer.

That's especially true for industries hardest hit by AI, such as tech , where there's been a pullback in entry-level job openings.