PL Predictions: Back buzzing Brentford to sting Liverpool

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Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action.

Set pieces could be where this game is won and lost - and the numbers suggest Chelsea are there to be got at.

Everton under David Moyes have built a clear identity around dead-ball situations, using their physicality and aerial presence to turn corners and free kicks into genuine scoring opportunities. Chelsea, meanwhile, have developed a rather less convincing reputation in this department. They have already conceded seven goals from set pieces this season - more than any other Premier League side.

And this is not simply a short-term problem. Chelsea are conceding set-piece goals at a rate of 0.53 per 90 minutes since the start of last season, the highest ratio of any Premier League team over that period.

So, who better to target in the goalscorer market than James Tarkowski.

The Everton defender is a major weapon at attacking set pieces, leading the way among the club's defenders for touches in the opposition box and shots. His recent record offers further encouragement. Tarkowski has scored three times across his last 15 games, including a goal against Bournemouth this season.

Week 6 @SkySportsPL Predictions & Best Bet results: Leif Davis to score or assist 3/1 ❌ 0-0 half-time Arsenal vs Leeds 9/4 ✅ Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled Evs ✅ Over 3.5 cards Palace vs Forest ✅ P+L +3.25 Season P+L +0.50 5/10 correct results 1/10 correct scores pic.twitter.com/TArRJ9ug7m

Andoni Iraola has a miserable record against Brentford, going seven meetings without a win and losing five of them.

Brentford's direct approach has repeatedly caused problems for his footballing philosophy, finding ways to bypass the press and turn matches into the sort of physical, second-ball contests that can leave his teams exposed.

Of course, Iraola now has a higher calibre of player at his disposal than he did at Bournemouth. But better players do not automatically solve tactical problems, particularly when the opposition know how to exploit them. Brentford have shown they can make life difficult for this style of football.

Liverpool's early-season numbers also make uncomfortable reading. Liverpool have scored just six non-penalty Premier League goals, the sixth-fewest in the division. More concerning is the lack of quality chances they are creating. They have manufactured only nine Opta-defined big chances, the joint-lowest total alongside Aston Villa and Coventry. Brighton, by comparison, have created 27.

At 11/10 with Sky Bet, backing Brentford on the double chance alongside under 3.5 goals offers a route in.

The betting market still appears reluctant to trust Hull City whatsoever, with their long-standing underlying data seemingly carrying too much weight in the assessment of their chances.