Trump's sanctions waiver offers India temporary relief, no certainty: GTRI

The think tank added that Russia's share of Indian oil imports fell from 51 per cent in July to 44 per cent in August as India bought more from the US

US President Donald Trump's waiver from sanctions, restrictions and tariffs under the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (SRIA) gives India temporary relief but offers no lasting certainty, and New Delhi should safeguard its energy security and buy oil on commercial terms, think tank GTRI said on Saturday.

It said that the move gives India relief from threatened additional duties of up to 100 per cent linked to Russian oil purchases.

"But the relief is reversible. Washington can restore the tariffs anytime, leaving India and other buyers uncertain about future US action," the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.

It also said SRIA remains a law, leaving Washington free to revive the tariff threat to extract concessions in bilateral trade talks.

The think tank added that Russia's share of Indian oil imports fell from 51 per cent in July to 44 per cent in August as India bought more from the US, despite higher prices, and from the UAE.

"For India, the waiver buys time but offers no lasting certainty. India should protect its energy security, buy oil on commercial terms and prepare for renewed US pressure. Temporary tariff relief is no basis for permanent trade concessions," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

He cautioned that the waiver exposes the uncertainty at the heart of US trade policy as Washington threatens penalties, then retreats when enforcing them becomes inconvenient.

SRIA became law on September 18, but the October 9 US-Russia agreement to buy Russian diesel made penalising other buyers hard to defend, he said.

"China already had protection against US tariff increases until January 10. The message is clear - US interests determine when penalties apply, while the ability to retaliate helps secure protection. China can push back. India risks repeated pressure unless it demonstrates that coercion carries a cost," Srivastava said.

On October 16, Trump issued a waiver from sanctions, restrictions and duties under SRIA, citing national interest. In an executive order on Friday night, Trump said it is in the US' "national interests" to withhold some of the sanctions.

Trump's executive order According to the GTRI, the order implements the Graham Act while putting its tariff penalties on hold.

It sets out a 500 per cent tariff increase on Russian goods and 100 per cent additional duties on goods from major buyers of Russian oil making new purchases from October 18, 2026.

"Trump simultaneously invoked Section 115 of the Act to waive these duties. The waiver has no fixed expiry date, but it can be withdrawn," Srivastava said adding the US Trade Representative will continue monitoring Russian energy purchases, allowing Washington to review the waiver and retain the tariff threat as leverage in future negotiations.