6 more byelections on horizon will test Liberal momentum, pressure other parties

The Liberals are taking a victory lap after scoring a hat trick of byelection wins on Monday night — but there are still a batch of seats that need to be filled and will serve as another temperature check of the electorate in the months to come.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's party garnered over 50 per cent of the vote in each riding that was up for grabs on Monday, picking up seats in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec.

"The message from Canadians I think is clear. They've given their support … to the government's plan and I think that's because Canadians are united," Carney told reporters in Ottawa on Tuesday.

Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, said the Liberal wins in North Vancouver-Capilano and Beaches-East York aren't surprising given that they're considered safe Liberal seats. But she said she thinks Daniel Gobeil's win in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord was a vote of confidence in how Carney is handling the trade war with the U.S.

Carney says Trump and his cabinet should stop 'throwing shade' and get serious about a deal

Turnbull said the Liberals picking Gobeil was a sign the Carney government wanted to make the byelection about the trade war.

"The fact that he chose a dairy farmer as a candidate, [signalled] a clear commitment to supply management," she said.

Three MPs resigned in the past week, which makes for five official vacancies at the moment. With Ontario Conservative Larry Brock set to step down later this month, that means six byelections will need to be held.

Conservative Cathay Wagantall officially resigned her Saskatchewan seat on Monday. Her resignation was preceded by former Liberal cabinet minister Steven Guilbeault — who officially resigned on Friday after giving notice that he was leaving back in May — and former NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice who stepped down last Tuesday to run in Quebec's provincial election.

The Bloc Québécois' Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay stepped down in June, also to run provincially. Liberal Shaun Chen resigned in mid-August.

Éric Grenier, author and analyst with The Writ, told CBC's Power & Politics that as things currently stand in the polls it's likely that the Liberals will keep the ridings they previously held and possibly pick up a few more.

"Still going to have lots of intrigue and interest in that next set of byelections and the Liberals will be looking to expand their majority," he told guest host John Paul Tasker.

Grenier said although Brock's riding of Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations has previously been considered a reliable Conservative seat, it will be one to watch when the campaign kicks off.

Brock won re-election in 2025 with just over 50 per cent of the vote, but the Liberals pulled in about 40 per cent. The Liberals picked up around 30 per cent in previous iterations of that riding.